The U.S. presidential election is set for 2020 and President Trump may be reelected despite his poor approval numbers. There are several arguments as to why Trump may be voted back into office in 2020.
Incumbents tend to be reelected
“Since 1900, 20 presidents have run for reelection. The incumbents have won 15 times and lost 5, if you include former President Gerald Ford who was never elected at the ballot box in the first place… Further, despite the chirping of the pundits about what 2018 means for 2020, recent history has shown that there is in fact very little correlation between a president’s first midterm election and their reelection bid. Case-in-point, Bill Clinton’s party lost 52 House seats in 1994 and Barack Obama’s party lost 63 House seats in 2010, yet both men garnered more than 330 Electoral Votes in 1996 and 2012, respectively,” according to The Hill.
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It remains that strong economies are the most important factor driving support for the incumbent president. At present, the U.S. economy is robust as inflation is a non-issue and unemployment rates are at record lows. Going into an election, a strong U.S. economy in 2020 will be a big plus for President Trump.
U.S. military policies
Americans have little patience for foreign military intervention and President Trump has shown that he is willing to pull out the U.S. military from overseas conflicts, such as Syria and Afghanistan. The U.S. is the biggest funder of NATO and Trump has also made it a point to pressure our European allies to boost military their expenditures as a share of GDP.
A hard line on trade
The U.S. used to have an open economy with lower tariffs, while other nations, such as China, had a restricted economy that threw up hurdles for the importation of U.S. goods. However, President Trump has rattled Beijing and is now in a position to alter China’s approach to both intellectual property rights and trade. Furthermore, he has negotiated new trade agreements with Mexico and Canada in an effort to boost demand for U.S.-produced goods.