asteroid, bayesianism, climate change, human extinction, probability

Is There Really A 1 in 6 Chance of Human Extinction This Century?

In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called The Precipice about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of “existential catastrophe” for our species during the next century at one in six. It’s quite a specific number and an alarming one. The claim drew headlines at the time and has been ...

Troy Oakes

An asteroid traveling through space.

Asteroid That Formed Vredefort Crater Bigger Than Previously Believed

About two billion years ago, an impactor hurtled toward Earth, crashing into the planet in an area near present-day Johannesburg, South Africa. The impactor — most likely an asteroid — formed what is today the biggest crater on our planet. Based on previous research, scientists have widely accepted that the impact structure, known as the ...

Troy Oakes

An asteroid traveling through space.